Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 23.304598 25.383783 27.633889 30.261995 33.262759 36.600603 40.619980
2025-11-30 19.921727 22.728892 25.980806 30.073250 35.154130 41.348918 49.624634
2025-12-07 17.659335 20.875767 24.805113 30.059045 37.062262 46.328559 59.983713
2025-12-14 15.924187 19.355436 23.728234 29.873645 38.576558 50.961280 70.974539
2025-12-21 15.032832 18.747439 23.672512 30.934122 41.856937 58.619862 88.586731
2025-12-28 13.881111 17.642687 22.779782 30.637291 43.032048 63.267175 102.735582
2026-01-04 13.006351 16.812597 22.150851 30.595823 44.526816 68.679647 120.175161
2026-01-11 12.365686 16.239768 21.811692 30.917348 46.616886 75.559149 143.456228
2026-01-18 11.673072 15.526592 21.183106 30.677606 47.668027 80.704831 165.275653
2026-01-25 11.081172 14.910833 20.638197 30.493374 48.761468 86.175352 190.887455
2026-02-01 10.589144 14.405120 20.214010 30.451264 50.094507 92.487007 222.902649
2026-02-08 10.119447 13.898911 19.743080 30.265440 51.101843 98.330245 257.827503
2026-02-15 9.669736 13.405180 19.270050 30.054758 52.095251 104.638655 300.975035
2026-02-22 9.252473 12.937614 18.806303 29.814662 53.002716 111.096233 352.270986
2026-03-01 8.907387 12.563375 18.469871 29.776560 54.353182 119.279712 423.039958
2026-03-08 8.564850 12.172600 18.075661 29.582828 55.319125 126.759761 503.224868
2026-03-15 8.448409 12.141062 18.296520 30.623306 59.408226 145.744223 703.064912
2026-03-22 8.134737 11.765255 17.882725 30.328416 60.149435 153.972651 848.800660
2026-03-29 7.881427 11.476678 17.604893 30.286500 61.541137 165.301320 1073.832063
2026-04-05 7.695880 11.292095 17.501819 30.602896 63.958408 182.006729 1471.566614
2026-04-12 7.448266 10.988974 17.160497 30.366412 64.810728 192.828756 1882.012391
2026-04-19 7.223889 10.715315 16.857213 30.184746 65.797136 204.989183 2484.561038
2026-04-26 7.031018 10.487393 16.626088 30.143200 67.201535 220.228548 3495.560345